作 者：Fang, WeiHuang, ShengzhiHuang, GuoheHuang, QiangWang, HaoWang, LuZhang, YingLi, PeiMa, Lan
作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of ChinaXi'an University of Technology Xi'an ChinaInstitute for EnergyEnvironment and Sustainable Communities University of Regina ReginaSK CanadaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River Beijing China
出 版 物：《International Journal of Climatology》
年 卷 期：2019年第39卷第4期
页 面：2005-2021
核心收录：
中图分类：P4[天文学、地球科学-大气科学（气象学）]
学科分类：07[理学]0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：China Scholarship Council, Grant/Award Number: 201608610170Doctorate Innovation Funding of Xi'an University of Technology, Grant/Award Number: 310-252071712National Key Research and Development Program of China, Grant/Award Number: 2017YFC0405900National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 51709221Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Grant/Award Number: IWHR-SKL-KF201803Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi, Grant/Award Number: 2015slkj-272017slkj-19This study was jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC0405900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51709221), the Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi (Grant Nos. 2015slkj-27 and 2017slkj-19), the China Scholarship Council (Grant No. 201608610170), the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Grant No. IWHR-SKL-KF201803) and the Doctorate Innovation Funding of Xi’an University of Technology (Grant No. 310-252071712).
主 题：Climate changeAtmospheric pressureDroughtFloodsHazardsMapsRisk analysisRisk assessmentWater managementcopulabased frameworkDry and wet conditionsDynamic risksJoint return periodPacific decadal oscillationSouthern oscillationStandardized precipitation indexWaterresource management
摘 要：Abrupt transitions between droughts and floods present greater challenges to water resource management than independent drought or flood events. It is therefore of significant importance to further include drought–flood transitions in the risk analysis of water-related hazards under a changing climate. This study more generally evaluates the risks of combinations of dry and wet conditions between adjacent seasons. First, dry and wet conditions are monitored by the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Then, a copula-based framework is proposed for the deviation of joint return periods of dryness–wetness combinations at different severity levels. In addition, SPI series trend detection is conducted using the Mann–Kendall test to analyse the temporal–spatial changes in dry and wet conditions. Wavelet analysis is applied to investigating correlations of dry and wet conditions with climate variability signals, which may provide predictive signals for dryness–wetness combinations. The results of a case study in the Pearl River basin (PRB), China over the period of 1960–2015 indicate that (a) the flood season (from July to October) tends towards dryness and there are wetting trends in the late autumn and winter; (b) as the joint return period is considered the proxy for the risk of dryness–wetness combination, shorter joint return periods remind a higher risk of suffering from abrupt dryness–wetness transitions in the spring–summer and summer–autumn, as well as the more frequent occurrence of continued dryness/wetness in the autumn–winter and winter–spring; (c) the western and eastern PRB are separately characterized by intensified and reduced risks of the most frequent combinations under a changing climate; and (d) El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sunspot activities have a close association with dry and wet conditions in the PRB. The study provides a supplement for the current risk map and may benefit the early warning and mitigation of water-related
